John Muiruri, the Nyeri County Director of Meteorological Services, has clarified that the ongoing rains do not mark the beginning of the long rainy season. His statement follows a period of heavy rainfall across various parts of the country, including Nyeri, over the past two weeks.
The unanticipated early rains have left farmers anxious and uncertain about planting schedules for the upcoming March-May long rainy season, which is only days away. Muiruri reassures that these rains are short-lived and are expected to subside within four days. He advises farmers to refrain from planting until the main rainy season commences in mid-March.
According to the Kenya Meteorological Department’s weekly forecast covering February 27 to March 4, rainfall is forecasted for several regions, including the South Rift Valley, the Lake Victoria Basin, and the Highlands East and West of the Rift Valley, among others. Daytime temperatures exceeding 30 degrees Celsius are expected in various counties, while nighttime temperatures in parts of Nyeri, Laikipia, and Murang’a counties may remain below 10 degrees Celsius.
Muiruri attributes the current high daytime temperatures to dry weather conditions since the beginning of the year. He anticipates a decrease in temperatures as the March-May long rainy season approaches.
The Intergovernmental Authority on Development’s Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) predicts above-average rainfall for the long rainy season, with a probability rating between 55 and 65 percent. Beneficiary countries include Kenya, Somalia, Ethiopia, Sudan, Uganda, Burundi, Rwanda, and northwestern Tanzania. Central and Western Kenya and border areas between Ethiopia, Kenya, and Uganda are expected to receive the highest probabilities of above-average rainfall.
ICPAC Director Dr. Guleid Artan notes the potential improvement in food security due to wetter conditions but emphasizes the region’s vulnerability to food insecurity, citing past droughts, conflicts, and floods. He warns of potential flooding during the 2024 May to March season, which could exacerbate localized food insecurity.